Donald Trump’s return to the White House is unprecedented. At 78, he will once again assume the presidency as the 47th President of the United States, becoming only the second leader in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms.
His victory over Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, underscores his enduring influence on American politics, despite ongoing legal controversies and even surviving an attempted assassination.
However, he has successfully managed to convince Americans to bring him back to the White House. He will be sworn in on January 20, 2025.
For Somalia, Trump’s re-election could bring considerable changes with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Trump’s Impact on Somalis
It is undeniable truth that many Somali Americans vote for Trump during this election, even as he has proposed policies to deport undocumented immigrants – including Somalis – and curb asylum benefits. In his election manifesto, Trump has promised to sign an executive order that would bar future children of undocumented immigrants from receiving automatic U.S. citizenship.
Beyond domestic policies affecting Somalis in the U.S., the Republican candidate’s re-election may signal shifts in U.S. involvement in Somalia, including military, counterterrorism, and humanitarian assistance.
Counterterrorism and Security
During his first term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia, impacting support for local forces known as ‘Danab’ battling al-Shabaab. Although President Joe Biden reversed that move in 2022, Trump’s approach could again disrupt these operations, potentially reducing critical on-ground training and support for Somali security forces.
While Trump’s administration may continue targeted airstrikes against al-Shabaab and ISIS inside Somalia, his reluctance to sustain long-term aid for the Somali military poses a challenge.
This reduced support could complicate Somalia’s transition as it prepares to assume full security responsibilities following the planned departure of ATMIS (recently renamed AUSSOM).
Humanitarian Aid and Development
Trump’s administration previously scaled back U.S. funding for international humanitarian programs, and his re-election could signal similar cuts. For Somalia—where foreign aid supports critical sectors like food security, healthcare, and emergency relief for displaced persons—reduced U.S. aid could worsen the already precarious situation, exacerbated by climate crises, conflict, and poverty.
A reduction in U.S. humanitarian assistance would particularly threaten vulnerable populations, including children and women.
Broader U.S. Policy in the Horn of Africa
While U.S. foreign policy in Africa often emphasizes counterterrorism and containing the influence of Russia and China, Trump’s renewed presidency may reinforce this approach, but with heightened focus on China’s role in the region.
This shift could deprioritize U.S. involvement in Somalia, instead concentrating resources on alliances, such as with Kenya, to strengthen regional partnerships.
If Somalia’s relationship with the U.S. is affected by this pivot, ongoing support for anti-al-Shabaab operations and aid may be reduced in favor of more direct counter-China strategies.
It is unclear how Trump’s administration will approach the complex relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly regarding the unresolved memorandum of understanding (MOU) Addis Ababa signed with Somaliland early this year.
The U.S. government is still regarded as a strong ally for both Somalia and Ethiopia. Therefore, any shifts in U.S. policy, depending on the direction the Trump administration takes, could influence regional stability and Somalia’s internal security, either positively or negatively.