Mogadisho (KAAB TV) – President Donald Trump’s recent decision to freeze American contributions to global aid through USAID has sent shockwaves across the international community, particularly in countries heavily reliant on foreign assistance.
Among the most affected is Somalia, a nation where nearly 70% of its annual budget is funded by donor contributions. With a 2025 budget of $1.3 billion, Somalia’s dependence on external aid underscores the fragility of its economic and political systems.
The U.S. has been a cornerstone of Somalia’s recovery efforts, providing billions in humanitarian and security assistance over the past two decades. Trump’s decision, therefore, raises critical questions about the future of Somalia’s stability, the broader geopolitical implications, and the moral responsibility of global powers in addressing humanitarian crises.
A History of U.S. Involvement in Somalia
Since 2006, the United States has contributed $1.5 billion in humanitarian assistance to Somalia, addressing dire issues such as drought, famine, and the displacement of millions of refugees. This aid has been a lifeline for a country that has struggled to rebuild after decades of civil war, political instability, and the persistent threat of terrorism. Beyond humanitarian relief, the U.S. has also invested $240 million in development assistance since 2011, targeting economic growth, political stability, and social services. These efforts aim to establish a formal economy, improve access to basic services, and foster legitimate governance.
In the security sector, U.S. involvement has been even more pronounced. Between 2010 and 2020, the U.S. provided over $500 million in direct security assistance to Somali forces, including the elite Danab Brigade, a special operations unit trained and mentored by American forces. The Danab Brigade has emerged as one of the most effective combat units in the Somali army, a testament to the success of U.S. investment in building local capacity. Additionally, the U.S. has contributed $2.5 billion to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its successor, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which have played a pivotal role in countering the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab.
Somalia is also the largest beneficiary of the State Department’s Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) program, receiving $1.395 billion between 2016 and 2021. These funds have supported the operations of troop-contributing countries and helped maintain a fragile peace in a region plagued by violence. U.S. military involvement has extended beyond financial support, with American forces engaging in active hostilities alongside Somali troops, including airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab. However, these operations have not been without controversy, as civilian casualties have provided propaganda fodder for militant groups.
The Impact of Cutting Aid
The decision to freeze USAID contributions threatens to unravel years of progress in Somalia. Humanitarian organizations warn that the suspension of aid could exacerbate food insecurity, displacement, and health crises, particularly in a country where millions rely on international assistance for survival. The timing could not be worse, as Somalia continues to grapple with the lingering effects of climate change, political instability, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the security sector, the loss of U.S. funding could undermine efforts to combat ISIL and Al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, al-Shabaab, which remains a potent threat to regional stability. The Danab Brigade and other Somali forces depend on American support for training, equipment, and operational capacity. A reduction in aid could weaken these units, creating a security vacuum that al-Shabaab would be eager to exploit. Moreover, the freeze could strain Somalia’s relationship with the U.S., a key ally in its fight against terrorism.
Geopolitical Ramifications
Beyond the immediate humanitarian and security concerns, Trump’s decision carries significant geopolitical implications. By withdrawing support, the U.S. risks ceding influence in Somalia to other global powers, particularly China and Russia. Both nations have been expanding their presence in Africa, leveraging economic and military partnerships to gain strategic footholds. For China, Somalia’s location along vital maritime trade routes makes it an attractive partner for its Belt and Road Initiative. Russia, meanwhile, has sought to strengthen ties with African nations as part of its broader strategy to counter Western influence.
The U.S. has long viewed Somalia through the lens of counterterrorism, but its involvement has also been a means of projecting soft power and fostering stability in a volatile region. By stepping back, the U.S. not only jeopardizes its own strategic interests but also creates opportunities for rivals to fill the void. This shift could have far-reaching consequences for U.S. influence in Africa and beyond.
A Wake-Up Call or a Misstep?
Within Somalia, reactions to Trump’s decision have been mixed. Some view the freeze as a wake-up call for Somali leaders to reduce their dependence on foreign aid and take greater ownership of their country’s future. Critics argue that decades of donor funding have fostered a culture of dependency, stifling local innovation and accountability. They contend that Somalia must prioritize economic self-sufficiency, good governance, and domestic resource mobilization to achieve lasting stability.
Others, however, see the move as a betrayal of Somalia’s progress and a failure of U.S. leadership. They argue that cutting aid at this critical juncture could reverse hard-won gains and plunge the country back into chaos. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has expressed hope that the Trump administration will reconsider its decision, particularly in light of the ongoing fight against terrorism. Yet, without official confirmation from the U.S. government, the future of American support remains uncertain.
A Moral and Strategic Imperative
The debate over U.S. aid to Somalia is not merely a question of dollars and cents; it is a test of America’s commitment to global stability and humanitarian values. Somalia’s challenges are immense, but they are not insurmountable. With sustained support, the country has the potential to emerge from decades of conflict and build a more prosperous future for its people. Abandoning Somalia now would not only undermine these efforts but also tarnish America’s reputation as a leader in the fight against poverty and terrorism.
As the international community grapples with the implications of Trump’s decision, one thing is clear: the stakes are high for Somalia, the region, and the world. The U.S. must weigh the short-term costs of aid against the long-term benefits of a stable and secure Somalia. In doing so, it must also consider the broader geopolitical landscape and the moral imperative to stand by a nation in need. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but the consequences of inaction are too great to ignore.
Abdirahman Jeylani Mohamed, Foreign Policy Journalist and Communications Specialist