MOGADISHU (KAAB TV) – A tit-for-tat conflict has erupted between the Somali Federal Government and the Southwest State authorities.
On Tuesday morning, several flights to Baidoa, the capital of Southwest State, were suspended by Mogadishu authorities, according to Southwest State officials.
Although Mogadishu denied this, the flights were allowed to resume later in the afternoon.
Just two days prior, flights to Bosaso Airport in Puntland were also suspended by the Federal Government’s air traffic control, impacting at least two carriers. The flights resumed on Monday.
While the reason for the suspension remains unclear, Puntland lawmakers have claimed it was politically motivated due to the ongoing dispute between Puntland and Mogadishu.
This comes shortly after reports surfaced that Mogadishu attempted to deploy the Turkish-trained Gorgor unit to Barawe, a town in the Lower Shabelle region under Southwest State control.
These developments closely follow Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s recent trip to Baidoa, where he sought to convince President Abdiaziz Laftagareen to return to Mogadishu.
Why did Prime Minister Hamza go to Baidoa?
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, a Daarood politician and president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s loyalist, was sent by Mogadishu to mediate and ease the rising tensions between the Federal Government and Baidoa. The friction began when President Abdiazoz Laftagareen of Southwest State accused Mogadishu of interference last week.
President Laftagareen has not only denounced ‘false nationalism’ of Mogadishu, but has supported his community’s request to retain Ethiopian forces in the region, while Mogadishu seeks to replace them with Egyptian forces as part of the upcoming African Union mission next year.
Reports indicate that the Federal Government wants President Laftagareen to visit Mogadishu for “consultations to resolve the differences,” but Laftagareen has declined the invitation over concerns of his security.
Why is Laftagareen’s visit to Mogadishu viewed with suspicion?
There are widespread rumors of a potential plot to detain President Laftagareen if he visits Mogadishu. Several Southwest State officials told Kaab TV they had credible sources suggesting that Mogadishu is planning either “house arrest or even kidnapping” once Laftagareen arrives.
Mogadishu authorities have neither confirmed nor denied these allegations.
Why are Southwest State and Mogadishu at odds?
Several factors contribute to the current crisis. First, Southwest State’s elections are long overdue, having been postponed for over a year. President Laftagareen seeks re-election, but Mogadishu supports other candidates, leading to significant friction.
Another key issue is the Southwest State’s reliance on Ethiopian peacekeepers under the ATMIS mission. The Federal Government’s relationship with Ethiopia has soured due to an agreement signed between Addis Ababa and Somaliland in January this year. Mogadishu reportedly wants Egyptian forces to replace Ethiopian troops, including in Southwest State, a Rahanweyn dominated region.
Southwest State’s leadership, however, prefers Ethiopian forces due to the security they provide. Historically, this preference is rooted in the 1990s conflict when Ethiopian-backed Rahanweyn forces ousted Egyptian-supported Hawiye militias from Baidoa.
Why does this crisis matter?
The Somali Federal Government is already contending with multiple crises. The rift with Southwest State is just one among several conflicts brewing between Mogadishu and regional states.
Puntland, in the northeast, severed ties with Mogadishu in March this year following disagreements over constitutional changes. Meanwhile, Galmudug, Jubbaland, and Hirshabelle have had fluctuating relations with the Federal Government, with Jubbaland recently opposing a new tax policy proposed by Mogadishu. All are also facing elections overdue.
Additionally, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s campaign against Al-Shabaab has stalled, with most regional states pulling their support for security operations. Inter-clan violence has also flared up in several southern and central regions, exacerbating the instability.
Moreover, the Federal Government has less than two years before its term expires in May 2026, when elections are expected. However, the format and process of these elections remain unclear, adding further uncertainty to an already fragile political landscape.