HARGEISA, Somaliland (KAAB TV) – As Somaliland’s presidential and political party elections approach, the region faces a crucial test.
Set for November 13, the elections come at a time of increasing political and clan tensions, with key issues such as Laascaanood dominating the campaign discourse. Despite the region’s relative stability compared to Somalia, unresolved conflicts and political rivalries are casting a shadow over the democratic process.
One of the central figures in the election, President Muse Bihi Abdi, running for the ruling Kulmiye party, recently accused the opposition Waddani party of failing to distance itself from former parliamentary speaker Abdirisak Khalif Ahmed, who defected to SSC-Khaatumo last year.
Addressing potential voters in Saba Wanaag town, Bihi used this accusation to raise questions about the opposition’s stance on Somaliland’s territorial integrity.
However, despite these allegations, Muse Bihi took a firm stance against electoral violence, pledging that his party would “refrain from violence should they lose in the poll.”
He emphasized, “The two parties that are afraid to resort to violence are Kulmiye and Waddani. For our party, we declare that we will remain peaceful, and if we lose, we will accept the defeat.”
Waddani’s Response
The Waddani party has been in Awdal region this week. The region is seen as a hotspot for Somaliland due to the recent tensions.
However, Waddani officials have not yet officially responded to President Bihi’s claims. However, political analysts point out that the former speaker, Abdirisak Khalif Ahmed, represented the state of Somaliland rather than any particular party, making Bihi’s accusations more of a political maneuver than a reflection of Waddani’s policies.
Key Election Structure and Contesting Parties
This election will feature two major components. The first is the presidential vote, which will be contested by the three main political parties: Kulmiye (the ruling party), Waddani, and UCID.
The second part of the election will determine the three political parties that will represent Somaliland for the next decade. Somaliland law requires that political parties be periodically renewed, and the time for the current three parties has expired.
Seven new political organizations and the three existing parties are vying for these slots, with only the top three vote-getters remaining as recognized parties for the next 10 years.
What Will Decide the Vote?
As with most Somali societies, clan affiliations and rivalries play a significant role in determining the outcome of elections, and Somaliland is no exception. While the parties have officially selected their candidates, clan dynamics remain a dominant factor.
President Muse Bihi, in power since 2017, hails from the Habar Awal/Sacad Muuse subclan of the Isaaq clan. His main rival, Abdirahman Irro of the Waddani party, comes from the Garxajis subclan. Many voters believe it is now the Garxajis’ turn to hold power, suggesting a rotational power-sharing dynamic, even though official voting will take place. The winner of the vote will lead Somaliland for the next five years.
Other Major Issues Impacting the Election
Three key issues are likely to shape the upcoming election:
Firstly, despite declaring itself a separate state in 1991, Somaliland is still not internationally recognized. Earlier this year, Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopia, granting it access to the Red Sea. This deal was met with strong opposition from Somalia’s federal government, further complicating relations in the Horn of Africa. The next president of Somaliland will need to navigate these tense negotiations, either with Somalia or the international community.
Secondly, the conflict in Laascaanood, where over 100 people were killed in nearly a year of clashes, remains a sensitive issue. The Sool region, where Laascaanood is located, has effectively broken away from Somaliland and aligned itself with Somalia. Additionally, the Awdal region in the west is experiencing rising clan divisions and insecurity, while the Sanaag region has seen increased clan violence. These tensions threaten to disrupt the upcoming election.
Thirdly, funding for the election has also been a concern. Somaliland’s Election Commission recently announced that only 60% of the election budget has been received, primarily from the government.
The international community, which pledged the remaining 40%, has yet to release the funds, raising doubts about whether the election can proceed smoothly.
As the election draws closer, both political rhetoric and uncertainties continue to grow, with the outcome set to shape Somaliland’s political landscape for years to come.